Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst, etoro

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – November 3, 2026: ADNOC Drilling comes to ADIPEC with a record set of numbers, but Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro believes the more interesting story is its new strategy.

The company reported record nine-month revenue of $3.7 billion and net profit of $1.07 billion. Third-quarter revenue slipped 1%. What weighed on it was a planned slowdown in unconventional drilling, the harder-to-reach tight-rock wells that need fracturing, where revenue fell by more than half. The rest of the business grew by around 7% in the quarter.

Oil and gas fields are developed in stages, and the company had flagged a quieter year for this type of work before it began. The chief financial officer has said activity should pick up significantly in 2027 once ADNOC signs off the next phase of development. This suggests the dip reflects the timing of projects and not weaker demand for the company’s services.

The bigger change is the company’s new Drill-to-Operate strategy, under which ADNOC Drilling aims to take part in the whole life cycle of a well, from drilling through completion and maintenance to supporting production. Services across a well’s life can bring income for years after drilling ends. That points to a broader and potentially steadier earnings base, and it fits ADIPEC’s focus on technology and getting more out of existing resources. The company is already using AI-enabled rigs and added 30 land rigs in Oman and Kuwait this year.

Shareholders also received a welcome bonus: an extra one-off payment lifts ADNOC Drilling’s expected 2026 dividend to $1.225 billion, more than a fifth higher than last year, subject to shareholder approval of the second instalment. Free cash flow is running below last year after the company built up inventory during the regional disruption, though it says its long-term contracts let it recover most of the added cost from customers. The higher payout suggests management is confident in its cash generation, even as it narrowed its full-year profit guidance to the lower end of the range it gave in July.

What investors need to see next is the strategy turning into contracts. Signs that unconventional activity returns in 2027, new service agreements under Drill-to-Operate, further growth outside the UAE, and the next island rigs arriving on schedule will show whether the company can grow its earnings as well as its dividend.

-ENDS-

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